One number can't carry the meeting.
The weighted forecast is the right expectation — probability times value is what the year averages out to, and it is the number GAP holds you to. But an average is not a plan: no one delivers 43% of a project, it lands or it doesn't.
Scenario planning asks the question the room actually argues about: what does your GAP — the distance to budget — look like in the certain, the optimistic and the ambitious case, and which deals move you from one to the other?
Call the deals. Slice the forecast.
Green, yellow or red, on one board. It takes a sales meeting, and it is the team's judgement rather than a field the CRM calculated. Green is not a stage: a deal can be green the day it enters the pipeline — an existing customer, a repeat contract, any solid reason it is yours to win.
In a scenario, a deal is worth what it is worth. Nothing is discounted by a probability — you are asking what happens if you win it.
Certain is the greens on their own. Optimistic adds the yellows. Ambitious counts everything. Each slice ends in its own GAP figure, and the forecast, the backlog and every drill-down follow it.
A certain, an optimistic and an ambitious GAP — from one board.
This is the promise: every scenario ends in its own GAP figure — how far that version of the year lands from budget. Not three opinions; three measured positions you can plan against. The spread between the certain and the ambitious GAP is the part of your year still in play — and where your selling time should go.
The meeting stops being a status report.
Calling a deal green in front of the team is a different act from typing 70% into a CRM field. It is owned, it is visible, and it is stage-blind — an early-stage deal with an existing customer can be green while a late-stage long shot stays red.
If even the certain case covers the budget, you have a delivery problem to plan for. If only the ambitious case gets there, you have a selling problem — and you still have months to do something about it.
Colours live in GAP and are never written back to your CRM. Your internal read on a deal is not something a customer's account manager should ever see in a synced field.
Watch the three GAPs move, live.
Book a live demonstration on a full demo company — call deals green, yellow and red yourself and watch the certain, optimistic and ambitious GAP figures rebuild as you do.
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